13 Project Estimating Pitfalls to Avoid Like the Plague

You are hiring people who are having a terrible time estimating projects.  The result is that project costs and schedules are overrunning the estimates by 100-300%.  Your employees have probably not been trained in project estimating best practices.  At the end of this article is a course that can solve the problem.  Until then ...

You know it’s a bad estimate and time to re-estimate when you hear…

1. “That wasn’t what I wanted.” Ensure the requirements are defined, written and agreed to by the sponsor and team. Otherwise the estimate is not worth the paper it’s printed on.

2. “It’s different here. We have a deadline before requirements are known.” So does your competition: Get used to it. Know and carefully manage the tradeoffs of time, staff/budget, scope, and quality.

3. “We can make the project go faster with more people.” Want to go faster? Recognize the impacts of schedule compression. The biggest timesavings come from things we don’t do; like rework. Implement practices that reduce bugs and rework. There is a minimum development time.

4. “We estimated last year.” Recognize estimating as a continuous process. Review at key milestones. Conduct techniques that give greater accuracy.

5. “Of course I’m certain!” Recognize uncertainty inherent in projects: Use probability and ranges in prediction. Don’t schedule from a sizing.

6. “I did it myself.” Get a second opinion. Review the estimate with a neutral 3rd party for bias, missing tasks, unconfirmed requirements, and inaccurate assumptions. Include input of the team.

7. ‘Another fine mess you’ve gotten us into, Stanley!” The surest way to make a commitment that can be kept is to know your team’s capability and make commitments according to capability. Remember: It’s all about making a commitment you can keep that delivers required results to the business.

8. “Never done it, but it has got to be easy.” Allow extra time for tasks with little or no prior experience. Avoid banking on ‘best case scenario’.

9. “We work an 8-hour day.” Only lunchtime is 100% productive. Until you can prove otherwise, use a 5-hour day for duration prediction. (60% ‘productivity’). Other urgent, important, non-project tasks will arise.

10.“Trust me.” Question authority: How did we get this estimate? Show me your work!

11. “Relax, we’re 90% complete.” Remember the 90/90 Rule of project tracking: The first 90% of the project takes 90% of the effort; the remaining 10% takes the other 90%. Focus on effort remaining, not percent complete. Tracking is re-estimating!

12. “Any thing printed on a color plotter has got to be true.” Be careful not to trust tools too much; a fool with a tool is still a fool!

13. “Just say No!” Resist the Urge!: Do not ride in the elevator with your sponsor!
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http://www.officeworksoftware.com/estimating-course.php
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OfficeWork Software provides training and consultation for better estimating and managing of large projects.

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Also see, “7 Signs You Have a Bad Project Estimate … and What to Do About It”:

http://www.kolinger.net/2010/02/03/7-signs-you-have-a-bad-project-estimate-and-what-you-can-do-about-it/

Go to www.kolinger.net or www.officeworksoftware.com for more details.