India can expect one of the highest pay increases in the world at 14.1%, nearly 10% above local inflation. North America and most Western European countries will experience the lowest salary increases worldwide.
Steve Gross, worldwide partner and global head of broad-based performance and rewards consulting at Mercer, said: "Some multinational companies are experiencing labour cost savings of 75% by sourcing labour from emerging markets. On the flip side, they generally need to invest more in employing supervisory staff and in training.
He added: "We are starting to see that short-term cost savings from sourcing labour in emerging markets can evaporate over time. It is therefore essential for multinational companies to consider both current pay levels and future salary increases when deciding where to source their labour."
Mr Gross continued: "Some companies that might otherwise be looking at emerging economies to establish their customer services are now reconsidering their options. Immediate cost savings are no longer the only consideration, as short-term affordability might be offset by long-term volatility in labour costs and inconsistent service quality in many emerging markets.
"A US company might decide to locate its call centre in rural America where there is a good work ethic, strong language skills and less competition for labour - and where projected pay increases are lower and long-term cost variations less volatile."
In Western Europe, Ireland is predicted to experience the highest actual salary increase (4.7%) as well as the highest increase above inflation (2.6%). UK pay is projected to increase by 3.1%, 1.1% above inflation. Projected salary increases remain fairly consistent across Western Europe, with actual increases averaging 3.4% and increases above inflation averaging 1.3%.
In Eastern Europe a different picture is offered as actual pay increase levels are forecast to stay amongst the highest in the world, at an average of 6.9%. Because inflation rates are also expected to remain high in this region (4.6% on average), increases above inflation will average only 2.3%.
Bulgaria is expected to see one of the highest pay increases in the region (9.3%) and with expected inflation rates at 4.4%, pay above inflation is projected at a high 4.9%. At the other end of the scale is the Czech Republic where the average pay increase (4%) is expected to be mostly offset by inflation (3.1%).
Cameron Hannah, worldwide partner at Mercer, said: "We are seeing increased activity amongst European and global companies in relocating labour intensive units, such as shared service centres, to the Eastern European region. This region is becoming more popular due to strong multi-lingual skills, proximity to Western European markets and the rapid escalation of salary levels in popular off-shoring centres such as India."
North America
Modest pay increases and inflation rates are forecast for next year in both the US and Canada, with average salary increases above inflation expected at 1.9% in the US and at 1.8% in Canada.
Asia Pacific
Pay increases in the Asia Pacific region will pick up next year, with actual increases expected to reach 6.6% and increases above inflation reaching 3.3%. India is expecting the highest pay increase in the region at 14.1%, reflecting its buoyant economic growth; its pay above inflation is also projected to be the highest, at 9.8%. Vietnam is also expecting a double-digit actual pay increase at 11.9%, 5.6%above inflation.
In Australia and New Zealand, pay rises are more modest, projected at 4.0% and 3.9% while inflation is likely to be 2.5% and 2.6%.
Mercer is a leading global provider of consulting, outsourcing and investment services.
