Where would we be without our weather forecasters? I mean no disrespect to the highly-trained, dedicated, passionate people who appear on our television screens and speak to us from our media speakers. I respect the researched information I receive from Weather.com and similar web sites. I studiously read my newspaper weather forecast to determine how I approach my day. I am a believer in the service our forecasters provide.
I frequently find myself considering the results of these forecasts. I wonder that if I yielded similar results with my professional performance, would I still have a profession? Let alone, would clients continue to pay me? I realize that the cause of the weather forecast results is in the unreliability of the weather itself rather than the forecasters´ performance. Yet, I still ponder the results and whether, if I credited the unreliability of the data I use in my own work for variable results, would I still have clients?
Consider the results that I see from weather forecasts. Weather forecasters-for major media outlets, anyway-have the latest technology and the best staff at their disposal for accurate research and analysis. Forecasters who appear in visual media are (mostly) good-looking and appeal to their constituency visually and auditorially. These characteristics place the people in this profession ahead of the average individual schlepping through life in average jobs with average resources.
Yet, forecasters make predictions that frequently prove other than as reported. They make fine-line distinctions between "partly cloudy" and "partly sunny"-distinctions we laypeople barely register. They report with absolute certainly that "That´s the way it will probably be for the next couple of days" (which really are the exact works of one of our DC-area weather reporters). Forecasters consistently offer caveats and probabilities in their public reports, and scatter their reports with "most likely", "I think", "should", "might", and "we´re not sure but..." Those weather reporters who we see on television and in other visual medium use multi-colored visual aids cluttered with information and movement. They approximate their gestures as they point to maps and other graphics because they actually stand before blank (green or blue) screens. Reporters look at a computer display several inches (or feet) away from where they actually point.
Weather reporters stand in the middle of storms telling people to stay inside. They set camera crews and broadcast vehicles in the middle of traffic while telling people to evacuate (onto the roads jammed with the distraction of their own equipment). Forecasters wear suits with jackets while on building rooftops at 105o-degrees F.
Imagine how I would be perceived if I performed at these same levels of accuracy! What would my clients say if I used language with similar certainty while reporting to them? How long would I have business if I spewed statistics with equal measure and behaved with as much contradiction to the advice I give others? Imagine if you did the same (unless you are a weather reporter yourself).
Weather people...we need you and appreciate what you do for us to keep us informed. You help us prepare for and cope with disasters and potential dangers. You help us figure out our wardrobes for the day and our forms of commute. I envy you in a way because if I yielded results similar to yours, I doubt I would have a business with which to perform.
(PS: I hope this is read with the same tongue-in-cheek attitude with which it is written.)
