UK Immigration: How The Proposed Blueprint Could Worsen Labor Shortage

The proposals are not friendly either to UK universities or businesses

The UK Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, is reportedly working on proposals to drastically cut net migration across the study, employment, and family visa routes. If the proposals are implemented, it could worsen the current labor shortage in the UK, harm UK universities, and even separate families.

Net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration) reached a historic high of 504,000 by the year ending June 2022, prompting Rishi Sunak’s administration to pledge action towards bringing it down to "reasonable levels". The lift on Covid-19 travel restrictions that sparked the return of international students, who accounted for 277,000 of the figures, as well as the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme and other relocation schemes, contributed significantly to the increase. UK employment migration, however, accounted for just 15% of the data.

In this period, a total of 2,082,321 visas were issued, with study routes numbering 486,868, topping all other categories. Dependent family members of foreign students amounted to 81,089, a more than five-fold increase from the 13,666 visas recorded in 2019.

In an attempt to reduce numbers on the student visa route, Braverman is considering an increase to the minimum income threshold requirement per dependant. Under current rules, international students, who want to bring their partners or children to the UK must have at least £680 per applicant. Increasing the threshold could lead to many students being unable to sponsor their loved ones to join them and make the UK a less attractive place to study. There are also reports that only students on Ph.D. or other postgraduate courses may be eligible to apply for their dependents to join them.

Also, reportedly, under consideration is an increase in the annual salary requirement for British nationals or those with settled status living in the UK, who wish to apply for family visas for their foreign partners. Under current regulations, an applicant must show that their sponsor has an income of at least £18,600. This figure may be about to increase might increase if Braverman’s proposals come into effect.

An increase in the minimum salary thresholds for foreign workers applying for jobs on the shortage of occupation list (SOL) and on the Skilled Worker route, in general, is also being considered.

As a general principle, a Skilled Worker visa applicant must earn at least £25,600 per year, or the "going rate" (the annual gross salary according to their profession) whichever is higher. Increasing salary levels could mean employers face more difficulties filling those roles, especially as many HR professionals grapple with the growing skills gap in the labor market. Many UK employers may have to reform their payroll structure to meet the eligibility criteria, placing more burdens on businesses struggling to find suitably skilled candidates to remain competitive.

Britain has been experiencing a protracted labor and skills shortage, which reached 16.8% in August 2022, with some industries even facing shortages of up to 35.5%. The UK economy has struggled to achieve its pre-pandemic labor supply and employment due to various factors, which include Brexit and the ending of free movement for workers from the EU. Employers have since turned to the Skilled Worker migration routes to hire foreign talents, but if Braverman’s proposals come to pass, this could become more difficult.

Findings by the Higher Education Policy Institute show that international students make an annual contribution of £25.9 billion to the economy in tuition and other variables, such as living costs and expenditures from their visiting relatives. According to the British Council, foreign undergraduate students pay between £11,400 - £38,000 annual tuition, while for postgraduates it ranges from £9,000 - £30,000. Making the route more restrictive could spell financial difficulties for the University sector and other related sectors. 

Experts from different sectors including the legal and education communities have reacted to the plans, pointing out its wider implications on the UK economy.

John Cahill, an immigration lawyer and partner at Immigration Advice Service, said: “The proposals are not friendly either to UK universities or to UK businesses and appear to be designed to achieve a political agenda to reduce overall net migration simply as a means to an end, whilst rather recklessly failing to take into consideration the wider damage they may have on the economy.”

Vivienne Stern, chief executive of Universities UK, an academic body representing 140 universities in the UK, called the plan “nonsensical,” stating that making it difficult for international students to study in the UK would deter post-graduates who make “huge contribution to research and the skilled economy.”

In the latest development, Braverman has also proposed to reduce the time international students can stay in the UK after completing their studies, The Times reported. The proposal aims to cut the duration from its current two years to six months, but the Department for Education (DfE) is said to have "strongly opposed" the plan. This came after ministers were asked to present their positions of immigration policy options. Apart from DfE, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and the Department for International Trade are other departments opposing the plan, fearing its effects on the country's economic positions. The proposed plans bothering on foreign students’ rights to bring dependents to the UK was however, less opposed.

This article was reviewed by John Cahill an immigration lawyer and partner at Immigration Advice Service, a leading law firm that helps individuals and businesses with their immigration needs.

Olusegun Akinfenwa is a Content Writer for Immigration Advice Service.