Sharing an expert analysis of this morning’s BLS Employment Situation Report from Julius Probst, European Labor Economist at Appcast. 

Want more information? Both Julius and Andrew Flowers, Chief Economist at Appcast are available to connect today. 

Below are Julius’ main takeaways from today’s BLS report, covering industry insights, wage growth, unemployment and more: 

“2024 ends with a pretty decent but also boring jobs report   

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227k in November, just a little above expectations. This is a very healthy pace of job creation following the bad October numbers, which were distorted by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike. 
Moreover, the jobs report also saw some positive revisions for the previous months, which increased September and October job growth numbers by about 56k.  
This report proves that the October numbers were a blip caused by external factors, and that the labor market remains healthy (if a bit boring). The soft landing continues!  



Industry insights:  
Industry gains were surprisingly broad-based; even in past strong reports, there have been clear winners and losers. In November, though, many sectors added jobs, even those who had underperformed in other months. Professional and business services, for example, added 26k jobs in November after losses throughout the summer. The manufacturing sector added 22k after shedding throughout the summer. A notable underperformer was retail, which posted losses during the holiday shopping season.  



Wage growth:  
Average hourly earnings growth is steady and up by about 3.9% year-on-year. Given the recent productivity gains that the U.S. economy has experienced, nominal wage growth close to 4% should not be inconsistent with the Fed’s inflation target. By that metric, the normalization of wage growth has been achieved, meaning that the U.S. economy is on good measure to achieve the soft-landing that the Fed has been aiming for. 

Unemployment: 

The unemployment rate rose slightly, to 4.2%. More concerning, under the hood, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio has declined sharply over the last three months, from 80.9% to 0.4%. While just a half percentage point, this is a weakening equivalent to what happened over 6 months in 2023. Unemployment is up year-over-year, while still being at a low level historically. The absolute level of joblessness is low, but the trend is concerning.” 



If you'd like to dive deeper into this morning’s report, Julius and Andrew are available for interviews via phone or email. Let me know your preference, and I'll be happy to coordinate!