Small business confidence saw partial recovery in February, rising 5.2 index points to 60.5 on the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)’s latest Business Barometer®.
“It looks like there is some cautious optimism in the small business sector early in the month,” said Ted Mallett, CFIB’s vice-president and chief economist. “Most provinces and sectors improved their outlook over January views. Other indicators of business health, such as hiring intentions and accounts receivable, are steady but weaker than normal. It should be noted that the survey period covered the early part of February, which will not fully reflect emerging business concerns over the Coronavirus and transportation network blockages.”
In total, 41 per cent of business owners say their firm is in good shape, while 14 per cent say it is in a bad state, a slight improvement over last month. Hiring intentions also improved but remained weak for the time of year, with 15 per cent planning to hire full-time staff in the next three months, and 13 per cent planning to cut back.
An index level nearer to 65 indicates that the economy is growing at its potential.
Provincial results: Sentiment in western provinces continues to lag
Quebec jumped to the top spot this month, gaining 4.8 index points to 68.3, followed by Ontario (64.4) and New Brunswick (61.6). Nova Scotia (59.7) and Prince Edward Island (58.3) posted results close to but below the national average. Sentiment continued to lag in western provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador (48.6). Manitoba (55.1) lost 2.3 index points, while British Columbia remained stagnant at 56.2. Despite some gains, Saskatchewan (47.6) and Alberta (39.6) remained the least optimistic provinces.
Industry results: Optimism rises in most sectors
Sentiment in all but two sectors improved in February. Transportation lost 2.0 index points to 48.6, the lowest sectoral optimism level, while financial services fell 1.4 points to 59.6. Agriculture (51.5) and hospitality (52.6) also posted optimism levels well below the national average. The natural resource sector (57.6) and the retail sector (61.0) posted the biggest confidence gains—8.9 and 8.6 index points respectively—though confidence in natural resources remained below the national average. Health services (65.3) and professional services (63.7) were the most optimistic sectors.
Read the February Business Barometer®
February 2020 findings are based on 839 responses, collected from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflect responses received February 3 through the 17th. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 3.4 per cent 19 times in 20.
For media enquiries or interviews, please contact:
Milena Stanoeva, CFIB
647-464-2814
public.affairs@cfib.ca
About CFIB
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 110,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.
