Gary Baker

New Forecast Predicts Only Small Rise in U.S. Holiday Retail Sales;
1.5% Increase Hints Recession’s Impact is far From Over

Archstone Consulting’s Analysis Identifies Some Positive Indicators,
Including Opportunities for Value Retailers and Retailers Selling Luxury Goods

U.S. Holiday retail sales are expected to rise by only 1.5% this year, according to a new forecast from Archstone Consulting, a division of The Hackett Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCKT).

This is a significant improvement over the sharp 3.9% decline of 2008 but represents only a modest improvement over the 0.4% increase of 2009. Archstone’s analysts find that despite some economic growth, stagnant family income and limited spending power have driven many Americans to feel that the recession is not over. However opportunities do exist in diverse sectors, including value retailers and retailers selling high-end luxury goods, as both of these sectors have already seen moderate to strong sales growth this year.

“In recent non-recessionary years, it hasn’t been unusual to see growth rates of three to five percent,” said Dave Sievers, Strategy and Operations Practice Leader for Archstone Consulting. “But the weak growth we’re forecasting for retail sales this holiday season is all the economy can muster at present. This recession has hit hard on the pocketbooks of the American family, and people are not ready to start spending again just yet.”

Sievers said that there are likely to be some pockets of strength emerging in the retail sector, as shoppers focus on discounts and practical purchases. “Retailers like Costco and Kohl’s have successfully proven that value can bring in shoppers and grow sales without diminishing their retail brand equity strength. Both are seeing year-to-date store sales up about 3%, which is impressive in today’s environment. On the other end of the spectrum, luxury goods sales began rebounding early in the year, and are nearing pre-recession levels. This segment should continue to experience growth during the holidays.”

Archstone’s research found that several factors are most likely to affect retail sales this holiday season. One key positive factor was back-to-school retail sales, which are the second largest “seasonal” sales period after holiday retail sales. Back-to-school sales figures showed a strong rebound this year, and are projected to be up 10.5% over 2009 and up 2.0% over 2008. Total spending on school-age children (grades K-12) is expected to reach $21.4 billion this year, up 22.5% from 2009 and 6.2% from 2008. Sales of luxury goods are rebounding to pre-crisis levels, with categories such as apparel, accessories, shoes, leather goods, and hard luxury -- including jewelry and watches -- leading the surge. Historically low inflation rates will also increase the relative value of retail sales, although this does not represent real growth.

On the negative side, the housing market remains extremely challenged, with declining housing values and foreclosure rates that continue to climb. Archstone also found that tight credit, continued high unemployment, and low consumer confidence were other significantly negative factors affecting retail sales.

Archstone’s forecast relies on its proprietary, predictive model, which examines a comprehensive list of factors, including: monthly disposable income, unemployment rate, consumer price index, price index for oil, wages, housing market, and retail inventory levels. Additional research on consumer credit, savings rates, consumer confidence, shopping trends, and impact of government stimulus programs was also factored into this year’s report. The retail sales forecasted exclude auto, gas, and restaurant sales. Analysis and research for the 2010 forecast was conducted by Hanna Hamburger, Archstone Consulting Director, and Heather Towt, Archstone Consulting Senior Consultant.

The research described here is available free, with registration, at this download link.

About Archstone Consulting

Archstone Consulting, a division of The Hackett Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: HCKT), is a leading strategy and operations management consulting firm, specializing in the consumer products, retail, life sciences, and general manufacturing industries. Archstone Consulting helps companies restructure and reduce their costs, while improving their business processes and operations.

The Hackett Group (NASDAQ: HCKT), a global strategic business advisory and operations improvement consulting firm, is a leader in best practice advisory, business benchmarking, and transformation consulting services including strategy and operations, working capital management, and globalization advice.

The Hackett Group and its brands (Answerthink, Archstone Consulting, and REL) have completed over 5,000 benchmark studies and worked with 2,700 major corporations and government agencies, including 97% of the Dow Jones Industrials, 73% of the Fortune 100, 73% of the DAX 30, and 45% of the FTSE 100.

More information on Archstone Consulting is available: by phone at (770) 225-7300; by e-mail at info@archstoneconsulting.com; or on the Web at www.archstoneconsulting.com.