The 3.2 percent rise in GDP (annualized) in the first quarter confirms that the U.S. economy continues to recover but the growth path ahead will remain bumpy. While growth is about half of the robust 5.6 percent pace in the last quarter of 2009, the underlying dynamic is actually healthier and better balanced: More of the rise in GDP came from domestic demand and less from an inventory correction. Still, the strength and durability of this recovery remain in question, as the economy sails into strong headwinds over the next few quarters. The boost from the fiscal stimulus is fading. Households remain heavily in debt and residential investment showed a large downturn. And there are daunting fiscal problems in the public sector. Unless income and job growth pick up sharply, consumer spending will cool.