Online Job Demand Down 101,800 in September, The Conference Board Reports

* September losses partially offset the larger August gains in job demand
* Trends for largest states remain unchanged (see Table A)
* Outlook: National trend slightly positive since April with increases in job demand averaging
   40,000/month
* Occupations: Healthcare professions continue to be in increasing demand

Online advertised vacancies declined by 101,800 to 3,363,000 in September, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series (HWOL)™ released today.
September losses partially offset the larger August gains (+169,000), leaving labor demand up by 67,000 over the past two months. Since the low point in April 2009, labor demand is up by 201,000, showing a modest upward trend following a five-month period of steep losses.

“While the trend has been modestly upward and averaged 40,000 per month over the last five months, the labor market continues to have a hard time gaining momentum,” said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “The Conference Board Employment Trends Index, which has been basically flat for three straight months, also helps highlight the difficulty the labor market is facing. With a growing consensus of a weak recovery, businesses seem to be slow to boost advertising for vacant or new positions.”

In the South, September online advertised vacancies fell by 45,400 following a 60,800 August gain. Texas dropped by 18,700 in September, partially offsetting the state’s gain of 21,900 in August. Florida, which in August had risen 15,700 to 181,400, declined by 9,400. The only large Southern state with an increase in job demand in September is Georgia, up 3,300. Among the less populous states in the South, West Virginia decreased by 7,900, Louisiana decreased by 1,200, Alabama decreased by 1,100, and Arkansas and Oklahoma decreased modestly (500 and 400 respectively). Kentucky increased very modestly (100) in September.

In the Northeast, Pennsylvania showed the largest decrease, down 7,900 to 126,000, in September. New York’s September decline was 5,900 after it had risen by 11,100 in August. Massachusetts decreased by 2,600 to 105,100 following an increase of 7,500 in August. Among the more populous states in the Northeast, New Jersey was the only state to increase in September, up 3,800 to 130,900. Among states with smaller populations, several posted modest gains in September including New Hampshire, 400; Maine, 300; and Connecticut, 100. Rhode Island and Vermont declined by 300 and 200 respectively.

In the West, after having risen 26,700 in August, California fell by 21,200 in September. Arizona and Washington dropped 1,400 and 1,000 respectively in September while Colorado remained unchanged. Among the states with smaller populations, New Mexico and Hawaii rose by 800 and 700 respectively, while Nevada fell 1,700 in September.

In the Midwest, states held on to more of their August gains than in other regions. Illinois, which had gained 7,600 in August, was relatively unchanged in September. Ohio, which increased by 6,700 in August, lost 1,900 in September. Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin all lost about half of their August gains.

The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. in August (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) was at 4.31, down slightly from 4.39 in July and indicating that there are now about 4.3 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy. Among the states, the highest Supply/Demand rate continues to be in Michigan (10.21), where there are over 10 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy. Other states where there are over 6 unemployed for every advertised vacancy include Kentucky (7.51), Mississippi (7.44), and Indiana (6.66). Alaska (1.65) and Nebraska (1.70) have some of the lowest rates.

It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rate only provides a measure of relative tightness of the individual state labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies (see Occupational Highlights section).

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

* Advertised vacancies in Healthcare professions continue to increase
* Labor demand continues to remain well below year-ago levels for most occupations

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical occupations, the largest category in terms of volume, rose 28,000 in September to 605,900. “September was also the second month in a row that advertised vacancies in these occupations were significantly above levels this time last year,” said Levanon. Labor demand for Healthcare Support occupations has also continued to be strong, although it dipped 3,900 in September to 114,200. Individual occupations showing increases included registered nurses, physical and occupational therapists, speech-language pathologists, and physician assistants.

Healthcare is a broad field, and the relative tightness of the labor market varies substantially from the higher-paying practitioner and technical jobs to the lower-paying support occupations. In August, the last month for which unemployment data are available, for every unemployed person looking for work in a practitioner or technical occupation, there were 2.9 advertised vacancies and the average wage in these occupations is $32.64/hour. In healthcare support occupations, where the average wage is $12.66, there were over two unemployed for every advertised vacancy.

Advertised vacancies in Management occupations had trended upward since May, but in September dropped 12,900 to 414,800. The number of unemployed exceeds the number of advertised vacancies, and in August there were almost two unemployed (1.8) for every online advertised vacancy in the management field.

Among the top 10 occupations in September with online advertised vacancies, Computer and Mathematical Science dropped 4,000 to 402,300; Sales and Related occupations declined 14,300 to 366,400; and Office and Administrative Support decreased by 12,200 to 333,900.

Supply/Demand rates indicated that, among the occupations with the largest number of online advertised vacancies, there is a significant difference in the number of unemployed seeking positions in these occupations. Among the top ten occupations advertised online, there were more vacancies than unemployed people seeking positions for Healthcare Practitioners (0.3) and Computer and Mathematical Science (0.6). On the other hand, in Sales and Related Occupations, there were over four people seeking jobs in this field for every online advertised vacancy (4.1) and there were nearly five unemployed looking for work in Office and Administrative Support positions for every advertised opening (4.8).

In September, only 1 of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted an over-the-year increase in the number of online advertised vacancies. Riverside, with 24,500, gained 400 vacancies. Among the three metro areas with the largest numbers of advertised vacancies, the New York metro area was about 13 percent below its September 2008 level and the Los Angeles metro area was 23 percent below its September 2008 level. Washington, D.C. was down 500, or 0.3 percent, from last year’s level.

The number of unemployed exceeded the number of advertised vacancies in all of the 52 metro areas for which information is reported separately. Washington, D.C. and Salt Lake City were the locations with the most favorable supply/demand rates, where the number of unemployed looking for work was only slightly larger than the number of advertised vacancies. On the other hand, metro areas in which the respective number of unemployed is substantially above the number of online advertised vacancies include Detroit, MI, where there are 13 unemployed people for every advertised vacancy (13.0), Riverside (11.0), Miami (6.9), Sacramento (5.9), Chicago (5.7), and Los Angeles (5.7). Supply/Demand rate data are for July 2009, the latest month for which unemployment data for local areas are available.

PROGRAM NOTES

The Conference Board Help-Wanted Online Data Series™ measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month on more than 1,200 major Internet job boards and smaller job boards that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board’s long-running Help-Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was published for over 55 years and discontinued in August 2008 but continues to be available for research), the new online series is not a direct measure of job vacancies. The level of ads in both print and online may change for reasons not related to overall job demand.

With the October 1, 2008 release, HWOL began providing seasonally adjusted data for the U.S., the 9 Census regions and 50 States. Seasonally adjusted data for occupations was provided beginning with the July 1, 2009 release. This data series, for which the earliest data is May 2005, continues to publish not seasonally adjusted data for 52 large metropolitan areas, but it is The Conference Board’s intent to provide seasonally adjusted data for large metro areas in the future.

People using this data are urged to review the information on the database and methodology available on The Conference Board website and contact the economists listed at the top of this release with questions and comments. Background information and technical notes on this new series are available at:
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwantedOnline.cfm.

The underlying data for this series is provided by Wanted Technologies Corporation. Additional information on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data used in this release can be found on the BLS website, www.bls.gov.

The Conference Board

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WANTED Technologies Corporation.

WANTED is a leading supplier of real-time sales and business intelligence solutions for the media classified and recruitment industries. Using its proprietary On-Demand data mining, lead generation and CRM (Customer Relationship Management) integrated technologies, WANTED aggregates real-time data from thousands of online job boards, real estate and newspaper sites, as well as corporate Web sites on a daily basis.
WANTED’s data is used to optimize sales and to implement marketing strategies within the classified ad departments of major media organizations, as well as by staffing firms, advertising agencies and human resources specialists. For more information, please visit: http://www.wantedtech.com.