Dear Career Counselor:

With some 10 years of experience at my company, I have found myself in an unenviable position. For several years analysts, the media and I were quite confident that the CEO´s office was - in due time -- mine. That is, until an outsider (an outsider!) was recently named CEO! Should I stay and make lemonade or start looking outside my company for new opportunities and challenges? What´s the market like out there? By the way, I am nearly 40 years old and am heavily invested in this company, owning millions of shares.

As companies emerge from an environment of "hold tight" to "strike now," we could see "that was my CEO job" become a common executive suite cry. Boards are under increasing pressure to proactively reassess the c-level office and corporate succession plan. And executives who once thought they were being groomed as heir-apparent to the chief executive now find that the path is being redrawn.

Take the case of VP level executives - and especially that of executive vice president R. David Schmaier - at CRM-giant Siebel Systems. On May 3, 2004, Schmaier joined Siebel´s Tom Siebel founder and the company´s CFO in a teleconference to make what must have been a difficult announcement for Schmaier: Former 26-year IBM veteran Mike Lawrie was joining San Mateo, Calif.-based Siebel as CEO effective immediately. NASDAQ-listed Siebel (like many in the tech sector) has been under financial fire for the past several years, having seen revenues decline and its stock price plummet from over $100 in late 2000 to below $20 by mid 2002. Since the beginning of this year, the stock has fluctuated between $15.45 in January and below $10 today.

At IBM Lawrie was Group Executive and Senior VP of sales overseeing some 90,000 employees and delivering some $80 billion in annual revenue. Lawrie saw his own path to the CEO office blocked in 2002 by the appointment of Sam Palmisano as Big Blue´s top exec - not unlike what Schmaier is facing now.

Should Schmaier who heads Siebel´s product and corporate marketing and alliances organizations have seen this coming? Would you? And once an executive´s career hits a significant stall, is it better to move on in search of the next career opportunity? Or will that opportunity emerge out of the changes within the company?

Signs the writing is on the wall

We´ve all experienced it - hitting a bump on our career path. We´ve failed to take note of signs that others saw and make the necessary adjustment to our career path or expectations until too late. At the senior executive level failure to heed the warning signs can turn that career bump into a pothole.

Following are warning signs that Schmaier - and other similarly situated executives - might heed.

Warning sign #1: Your company is now the hottest career move for partner and client company execs.

IBM, according to published reports, is a partner and the largest customer of Siebel. Former IBMers have been joining the company with some regularity. In the past several months, key IBM managers have joined Siebel.

Once this trend develops, it is wise for executives to take note of any shift in the power base. And, at Siebel -- with a great deal at stake and revenues flagging, the founder perhaps thought it would be a wise move to bring in someone who can both claim the title of outsider - and play some inside ball.

Warning signs #s 2, 3 & 4: No room at the table for long-time executive.

If the long-standing heir apparent and "consummate" insider doesn´t have a seat at the table, then the insider has neither insight nor influence into the inner workings of the Boardroom. And in the era of Board activism, this can spell trouble for any executive.

The red flag waving becomes a bit more animated if the company has seen significant declining revenues and the executive is in product development or sales and marketing. For someone such as Schmaier at Siebel, the problem is compounded when the board position that corresponds to the executive´s role is filled by your predecessor - a real insider who has done the exec´s job.

Warning sign #5: Rising star falls with company´s fortunes

At the very senior levels, it´s not unusual for analysts and journalists to pick their media darling and elevate shareholder, executive and board expectations for that person´s accomplishments. And from there it is easy to get knocked off the pedestal, especially when the executive´s star is tied to the company´s decline in revenue.

What to do next

Whether the executive heeded the warning signs or woke up to find that the career pothole is potentially becoming a sinkhole, below are options to exercise when the writing has hit the wall.

Option 1: Reapply for your job

I have some good news and some bad news for executives working in a company with a new "outsider" CEO. First, the good news: The new CEO has not worked with you on a day-to-day basis. Now the bad news: See good news.

Few new chief executives coming into a public company have the nerve to wipe the corporate slate clean and axe everyone at the senior level, at least during the honeymoon phase, where the outsider comes in and works to establish his political base and make sense of the corporate culture and structure.

Media and insiders report that it is still unclear what impact Lawrie´s tenure as Siebel CEO will have upon the executive suite. Computerworld reports that Lawrie doesn´t plan to make any "significant changes" to Siebel´s management team in the next 12 months and that he intends to maintain the company´s current strategy as well. Few executives would buy that.

For executives, such as Schmaier, this is not necessarily good - or necessarily bad. It may be the opportunity needed to "reapply" and to define a more satisfying role and potentially develop a close working relationship with the new CEO.

Rather than leaving on the heels of the new CEO announcement, Schmaier could prevent and minimize damage to his reputation, stay and publicly support Lawrie. As he does that, Schmaier could reposition himself as a future CEO who will inevitably be recruited to another good company - not unlike what Lawrie did when he left IBM for Siebel.

Option 2: Apply for the second most powerful job

If an executive is pushed off the CEO´s path but locked into the company financially, the next option may be to apply for the company´s second most powerful job. Often that position can be found in sales and marketing. Or in the case of Siebel, it might be the long-time vacant COO slot.

Analysts are suggesting that Siebel is about to go on a shopping spree - stepping up their acquisition strategy which to date has mostly been defined by been small and tactical purchases. A recent report suggests that Siebel may be looking to buy a company that will provide some back-end functionality such as order management or billing to the company´s offerings.

It would not surprise me to see the second most powerful position in Siebel become either the lieutenant of the company´s changing acquisition strategy or EVP in charge of sales across the various business units. Schmaier who has headed Siebel´s product strategy for the past several years could fill either role. In fact, either of these roles represents a void in Schmaier´s resume which is best to get filled before compromising and accepting a tier-two CEO job.

Option 3: Make an honest assessment

While leaving just as the new CEO is coming in can be hard on the reputation, it can be more difficult for the executive in Schmaier´s position to remain on board. That exec should look at himself in the mirror and decide whether in his heart of hearts, he has the hunger and drive to run a business as CEO. Once that assessment is done, the executive may have a better idea of where he or she might head next.

Option 4: Drop the company. Drop the CEO aspirations.

Whether an executive is pushed off or steps off the CEO career path, he or she still needs to create outside opportunities.

Options to consider for any executive who aims to maintain a high profile as a professional might include VC work or creating a career as a professional Board director.

However, both can be difficult to achieve. Joining a VC firm requires coming to the table with some wealth - something that someone in Schmaier´s position may have achieved through option grants and/or executive compensation levels. Carving out a career as a Board member and director is more challenging today, particularly for a forty-something, Caucasian male - given the Board room´s move to diversity.

Option 5: Pull a Lawrie

Anyone at Schmaier´s level has CEO opportunities - if not within their current company then with another. One way to uncover those openings is through Board work. Senior level executives should be on the Board of one - if not two - companies. Board work presents one of the greatest opportunities for what is, in essence, informal interviewing for a CEO position. My daily dealings with board members has led me to meet some great talent and to find talent for c-level openings. The Board holds the key to the CEO´s office: They have the final say in appointing any new CEO. Add Schmaier´s work as head of alliances at Siebel, and the exposure to Board members who are often the first to know that a company the meet-and-greet aspect of his work puts him in front of board members from many different companies.